Yawning Bread. 27 June 2009

Singapore fights Mexican flu with authoritarian efficiency


    

 

 

Since we are so fond of world rankings, this might interest Singaporeans: On a per capita basis, Singapore is among the ten worst infected countries in the world for the H1N1 influenza that began spreading from Mexico in May.

Up-to-date numbers of laboratory-confirmed cases can be seen from the World Health Organisation's website. As at 26 June 2009, 07:00 GMT, Singapore reported 315 cases, which I have calculated to be 67 per million population. Compared to other countries, we were eighth in per capita ranking.

The evening of the same day, our Health Ministry announced a new total of 365 confirmed cases [1]. For our small population, that is very many. That said, numbers in other countries change equally quickly, and rankings will necessarily change too.

Our early "lead" in ranking reflects the number of people travelling through Singapore especially to and from Australia and the United States, two other countries in the top ten league. Tourists and Singaporeans have brought the virus in.

Hong Kong too has a high per capita number. As at midnight 26-27 June 2009, the territory's Department of Health website reported 596 confirmed cases. Based on a population of 7.1 million, that works out to 84 cases per million, even worse than Singapore. Like Singapore, Hong Kong is an international transportation hub.

However, Hong Kong is not separately shown in WHO's statistics; it is grouped within the data for China, which due to its large population and relatively few cases on the mainland, shows a very low per capita figure.

 

Among Southeast Asian countries, Singapore is disease central. Malaysia's total this week was still below 100, while Indonesia saw its first two cases only on 24 June -- an Indonesian pilot who had been to Perth and Hong Kong recently, and a British tourist in Bali who flew in from Melbourne.

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It should be borne in mind that the numbers on WHO's website represent lab-confirmed cases. 

It is quite possible that in many countries in Southeast Asia without a surveillance system and lab facilities like we have, there may be many more undetected cases in the community. The official data for these countries would then grossly understate the H1N1 situation there.

 

The situation in Singapore is past the tipping point, the Health Ministry's director of medical services, K Satku, told the media [2], and we can only expect the numbers to increase.

Fortunately, the symptoms tend to be mild, the anti-viral drug Tamiflu has been shown to be effective, and so far there has been no deaths. However, as cases rise, sooner or later someone with pre-existing health problems will also catch the virus, and we may see our first fatality.

Currently, Singapore is still quarantining every case we find. Beyond a certain point, however, we will not have the resources to do so, and H1N1 will be managed by polyclinics and general practitioners. Most cases will be sent home to rest and only the severe ones will be hospitalised. Satku told the media that on present trends, this point may be reached quite soon.

* * * * *

 
My brother-in-law saw for himself how overstretched medical personnel were at Tan Tock Seng and the Communicable Disease Centre (CDC) earlier this week. He was treated as a possible case and had to report there in order to be cleared.

What happened was this: Two hours after a tandoori chicken lunch, his stomach revolted. A fever soon came on. By 6 p.m. my sister insisted that he should see a doctor, and off they went to a family clinic in Bukit Timah.

Almost as soon as the clinic confirmed that he was running a fever of 40.5 degrees, "the SOP kicked in," he told me, referring to a standard operating procedure. "They told me to go to Tan Tock Seng Hospital and would call for an ambulance if I needed one."

Go immediately, they were told, his stomach complaint unheeded.

6:45 p.m. Arriving at Tan Tock Seng's Accident and Emergency Department (A&E), he was met with a stern command. Get rid of the mask you're wearing. Put this other one on. He did as instructed. Noticing that it was a thicker, heavier-duty type, he passed a comment about the N95 standard for masks. He was met with a glare that said, "Don't be a smart aleck."

After being screened and his temperature taken again, he was told, "A guard will come and take you to the CDC." He waited. A while later, a doctor came, said "follow me" and ... Oh, these are highly-qualified guards they have at Tan Tock Seng, my brother-in-law said to himself, now careful not to say such things aloud lest he get another "Don't be a smart aleck" glare.

"So here I was, someone running a temperature of 40.5 degrees, and I had to follow him and walk, yes walk, a block and a half to the CDC."

At the CDC was another marquee. Inside, straight-backed chairs had been arranged in military formation, each about two or three metres apart. There were altogether some 60 - 70 chairs, he estimated. In front of each chair was a little table. He was told to sit at an assigned chair -- for the next six hours -- with a clipboard holding a checklist on the table in front of him His chair was the one nearest the airconditioner that constantly blew at him and past him to the rest of the space.

While there, they took his medical history -– "I'm telling you, it's a stomach upset" -– and, at repeated intervals, took his blood pressure and other vital signs. Sometime during the period, he had to go to an adjacent building for an x-ray, and they also took some blood for tests. Unavoidably, he had to get up from the chair now and then to go to the toilet, so he wasn't exactly tied to his chair all the time.

They offered him a gurney to lie on if he felt too weak to sit. "I wasn't about to die," he recalled, "so I wasn't going to lie on one of those things."

At about 9 p.m. two tablets of Panadol were given to him. At last, they were attending to his fever.

And sat there upright for three hours more.

"I wished I had my camera with me," he told me. It was an interesting enough experience to record, but I think if he had whipped out a camera, a posse of policemen would have swooped down on him suspecting him to be a bio-terrorist out to plan an attack on Singapore's medical defence system.

Around midnight, word came that he was "unlikely" to have the H1N1 flu. The officer informed him that after he's got his prescription, he could go home.

"Do you need us to call an ambulance to send you home?" she asked solicitously.

"What? Do you guys use ambulances like taxis?" -- that's what he wanted to say, but once again, kept smart-alecky comments to himself. "No, I'll call my wife," was what he actually said. He borrowed a phone and gave her the good news.

12.30 a.m. My sister arrives at Tan Tock Seng A&E where she had left her husband earlier, and was told she was at the wrong place. The CDC's not here, but over there, she was told. She had to get out to Moulmein Road again and in by another gate. There, she asked the guard to inform whoever was in charge inside that she had come to fetch so-and-so.

"You call him yourself and tell him to come out," said the guard.

"I can't," she said. "He doesn't have his mobile phone with him." Being so ill, he hadn't taken it along when he went to the Bukit Timah clinic.

"He has no mobile phone?" asked the guard, incredulous. Wasn't everybody in Singapore supposed to be armed with a cellphone?

"He looked like he didn't know what to do," my sister told me. "It wasn't in the SOP." The guard then had to make a number of calls to find out where exactly the patient was and to convey a message that he could come out now.

The reply was: he couldn't. He was still waiting for his medicine.

It wasn't until about 1 a.m. when they finally handed him a bagful of pills. Thankfully, included among them were some antibiotics meant for the food poisoning. At least they hadn't forgotten that that was why he went to the doctor in the first place.

"I can see they were really stretched," he said by way of a forgiving conclusion.

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Medical records

It's doubtful what Tan Tock Seng's and the CDC's records are worth. They didn't even record my brother-in-law's name correctly. He brought his passport with him, but like all US passports, it has a separate entry for a last name. For example, it's like this:

Last name: Liebsen 
Personal names: Richard Harold

Tan Tock Seng Hospital and the CDC merely recorded my brother-in-law's first and middle names, making no record of the surname. Throughout his six hours there, he was referred to as "Mr Harold" instead of "Mr Liebsen".

(The above is not his real name; I've changed it for here.)

I don't know whether he tried to inform them of their mistake, or just shrugged and let it be, lest they think he was trying to be a smart aleck again.

* * *

Two days later, I asked him: "Did they ever confirm to you that your H1N1 test came out negative? Have they called you since?"

"Nope." he said.

"But if it had turned out positive after you left the CDC, they would have quickly sent an ambulance to your apartment," I speculated.

"Oh, they wouldn't know where to find me."

"Why not?"

"They didn't record my address properly either."

 

As the number of cases rise, this highly centralised and rigid protocol will collapse under the weight of numbers. As mentioned above, suspected cases will be treated at family doctors rather than directed to Tan Tock Seng, and even positive cases, if mild, will be sent home rather than to hospitals.

No doubt this will accelerate the spread even more. But if we are anyway going to abandon the centralised system, why did we set it up in the first place? Why didn't we let the virus run free from the start, as was suggested by Lee Wei Ling, a neurologist, sometime in May? Her point was that it would be better to let Singaporeans as a whole acquire herd immunity to the virus as quickly as possible, so that we can put fears behind us.

Her proposal was rejected by the Health Ministry, and although I didn't read what the ministry's reasons were, I can guess at quite a number myself.

  1. While one way or another, it does look like eventually, H1N1 will be spread widely, there is a huge difference in impact between a fast burn strategy and a slow burn.  
     
  2. Especially in the early days, we had insufficient data as to how serious the cases would be. Would a high percentage of patients need intensive care? To let the disease get out of hand when hospital resources were limited would be reckless.
      
  3. We also didn't have sufficient experience as to how to treat patients with H1N1. To burden our healthcare system with an early surge of cases when we were still on the learning curve would be foolish.
      
  4. A slow burn buys us time for a vaccine to be developed.
      
  5. There's also a big difference in economic impact. A fast burn may mean that at any one time, 25 percent of the population could be ill. Even if they don't need hospitalisation, they'd be away from work. Hospitals will be understaffed. Airports, fire stations, transport services, banks, factories will all be thrown into chaos as large percentages of staff do not show up for work. Even ambulance drivers will be in short supply just when they are most needed.
      
  6. By contrast, a slow burn may mean only 3 to 5 percent of the workforce will be down at any one time, at worst. It's an attrition rate we can cope with. The healthy ones may be stretched, having to do a bit more at work, and looking after a sick family member at home. But the infrastructure around us will not collapse.

So please, people, be responsible. Wear a mask if you're sneezing or coughing and wash your hands frequently -- you never know what you have touched.

© Yawning Bread 


 

Footnotes

  1. Straits Times Breaking News, 26 June 2009, 365 confirmed cases to date  
    Return to where you left off

  2. Straits Times, 26 June 2009, H1N1 cases hit 315; things will get worse  
    Return to where you left off

Addenda

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