Yawning Bread. 18 November 2008

One party good, two parties bad, says PM Lee. Again.


    

 

 

Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong is clearly not embarrassed by his biggest gaffe of the 2006 general election, the one where he said if voters sent opposition members into parliament, he would be spending much of his time thinking up ways to fix them.

He repeated more or less the same argument last Sunday at the People's Action Party (PAP) conference. A two-party system cannot work in Singapore, he said, because it is adversarial in nature. Buttressing his point, he cited the example of Taiwan, describing its politics as "polarised" and "malfunctioning". One gets his drift: In any two-party system, politicians would naturally spend time trying to fix each other rather than attend to the country's needs. It guarantees neither good governance nor progress, he said.

 

One particular paragraph in the Straits Times report (at right) struck me:

As long as the People's Action Party (PAP) changes itself and continues to provide clean and good government, and the lives of Singaporeans improve, the country is much better off with one dominant, strong, clean party, he said.

Look carefully, and you'll see that it contains a condition – "As long as..." He mentioned it, and then quickly cast it aside, as if it was merely academic.

But really, what if the condition is not fulfilled? Would a one-party system be better or worse? He didn't even come close to addressing it. Would you, dear reader, like to hazard a guess why he didn't dwell on it?

Then he instructed his audience on the difference between a big country and a small one by taking the example of the US and Taiwan, his point being that big countries have a kind of strategic depth; they can absorb a spell of bad government or extreme polarisation and still recover.

Plausibly that is true, though one might also point to the example of China during the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution. A huge country was brought to the brink of chaos and mass starvation, not because it had an adversarial two-party system overzealous in fixing each other, but a dominant single party with untrammelled power.

There is undue selectivity in Lee's examples. Why, each time when the Singapore government tries to parry demands for greater democracy, do they always use the example of Taiwan?

* * * * *

 
Why not also use the example of a country which held a general election the same week as the US presidential election
-- New Zealand? It's a small country with a population of 4.2 million -- a lot closer to Singapore's than Taiwan's 23 million.


New PM John Key of New Zealand
  

The government changed hands after that election. John Key's National Party won 45.5 percent of the vote and 59 seats in the 122-member Parliament. The Labour Party's support fell 7 percentage points to 33.8 percent, giving them just 43 seats. [1] 

Helen Clark lost her job as Prime Minister after 9 years in office, as voters showed their unhappiness over the country entering a recession in the first half of 2008. Some analysts believe it will not pull out of it until 2009 as weak consumer spending, falling house prices and the global credit crisis bite.

The National Party has promised to move quickly to legislate for further income tax cuts to take effect in April, increase spending on infrastructure projects, and start the reform of planning laws to stimulate the economy. [2]

New Zealand stocks rose and the currency gained after the result.

If you think the Labour Party deserved to lose because it led the country into a recession, why don't we ask whether Singapore is currently in a recession? Naturally, you will find the PAP government saying that they are doing everything possible to mitigate its effects and lead Singapore out of the doldrums as quickly as possible. I don't doubt that. But my point is that New Zealand too has a committed team to do likewise... and they didn't have to do without a two-party system and a fully functioning democracy.

* * * * *

 
I was also aghast to read Lee's remarks about the current President of Taiwan. It is extremely undiplomatic of him to say:

The Taiwanese today are disappointed with President Ma Ying-jeou because his campaign promise of instant improvements has not materialised, said Mr Lee.

Passing judgement on their elected leader foolishly jeopardises Singapore's relations with Taiwan. It brings shame to us all when Singaporeans are seen as haughty and presumptuous.

* * * * *

 
New Zealand is an interesting case in another way: It has a complicated proportional representation system [3] 

Yawning Bread has for years been advocating some degree of proportional representation in our electoral system. The Singapore government is not in favour, for reasons too obvious to explain, though for public consumption, their argument is that it tends to lead to unstable governments.

Full-blown proportional representation certainly does demand a lot more give and take among political parties (but I have never argued for full-blown proportional representation for Singapore), yet it is hard to say that the New Zealand example is all that discouraging. It is true that since its implementation in 1996, no party has ever won an absolute majority in parliament, but they've managed to form stable governments nonetheless, and budgets have been passed without much delay. Note, for instance, that prior to this election, Helen Clark had been prime minister for 9 years continuously.

John Key managed to form a government within a week of the general election held on 8 November 2008. To the National Party's 59 seats, he secured 11 more from his coalition partners: the free-market ACT (5), centrist United Future (1) and indigenous Maori parties (5).

This will give his government 70 seats in the 122-seat legislature – a stable majority. [4] 

In any case, don't go around believing that jockeying and horse trading only occur when there are coalition governments. The same happens within single-party governments, except that they tend to take place behind closed doors as each faction elbows its agenda forward. Yes, even within the PAP. I've heard not a few insider tales about what goes on. In this sense, you might even say that coalition governments are more transparent when their bargaining takes place in full glare of the media, which can't be a bad thing, can it?


Singapore's future leaders
 

* * * * *

 
But I must come back to this question of the condition. "As long as the People's Action Party (PAP) changes itself and continues to provide clean and good government..." the Straits Times reported Lee Hsien Loong as saying. But what if they don't? How do Singaporeans then get the good government they want from another party in the absence of a two-party democracy?

Strongman Lee Kuan Yew once mused about this. He told the media that if the PAP fails to deliver, he expects the military will step in.

Brilliant.

© Yawning Bread 


 

 

18 Nov 2008
Straits Times

Two-party system cannot work here, says PM Lee

A two-party system cannot work in Singapore, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said on Sunday.

This is because it is adversarial and guarantees neither good governance nor progress.

As long as the People's Action Party (PAP) changes itself and continues to provide clean and good government, and the lives of Singaporeans improve, the country is much better off with one dominant, strong, clean party, he said.

Speaking at the PAP annual conference, Mr Lee highlighted two examples of how the two-party system worked: The United States and Taiwan.

Concerning the US, he noted that Mr Barack Obama had campaigned on the theme of 'Change we can believe in'.

The President-elect would now try to change the direction of the country because that was the nature of the system in the US: One party changing what the other has done once it is in power.

The US could afford such change because it was a big country, said Mr Lee.

'It has a big pool from which to find political talent. Mr Obama will be able to find many able people to hold his administration... According to one report, they are all waiting beside their telephones waiting for the phone call.'

He added that while Republican presidential candidate John McCain might have given a 'very gracious' concession speech after he lost to Mr Obama, that will not alter the stark reality of adversarial politics in the US: The Republican Party will be doing all it can over the next four years 'to undermine the Democratic Party, and in the next elections, beat it, and get back into power'.

The US could withstand such an adversarial system because of its size: 'Whatever happens, the US will still be there. Eventually, problems will be put right and life will go on.'

In smaller countries however, there was no guarantee 'that if something goes wrong...you can put Humpty Dumpty together again', he noted.

He cited Taiwan as an example of how two-party democracy had been detrimental to people's lives.

In 2000, its voters, unhappy with the 'corrupt' and 'stale' Kuomintang (KMT), voted in MrChen Shui-bian's Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).

But after eight years of his presidency, they saw the 'sad results' - a stagnant economy, polarised politics and worsening corruption.

So they voted him out, and returned the KMT to power.

But the KMT found it was not so easy to get the economy restarted or to restore good government and have a less polarised political environment.

The Taiwanese today are disappointed with President Ma Ying-jeou because his campaign promise of instant improvements has not materialised, said Mr Lee.

Yet the alternative to President Ma in the form of the DPP leader would do no better.

Taiwan would qualify as a democracy by Western standards because it has had two changes of government in the past eight years, said Mr Lee, but it was not a political system that worked properly. It was 'malfunctioning'.

'I don't think you want that kind of political system in Singapore,' he said.

 

Footnotes

  1. Bloomberg, 10 Nov 2008, Key's New Zealand Election Win Fulfills Child's Dream. Link 
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  2. Reuters, 15 Nov 2008, New Zealand Nationals sign deal to form government. Link. 
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  3. For a brief explanation of the electoral system in New Zealand, see http://www.electionresources.org/nz/  
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  4. Same source as [2] 
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Addenda

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